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COVID-19 infection numbers nearly 100k daily

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Post by Gromit Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:59 am

mikethebike wrote:I think the first minister uses one size fits all.! Pain for all.

Micky
I'm sure he does Mike.
Pubs can open, but only until 6.00pm, and they can't sell alcohol.  rolleyes

What use is a pub with no beer!!!!

The man's an idiot if he thinks pubs will be able to survive selling lemonade crisps and lemonade.
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Post by Gromit Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:09 am

Mrgeoffrey wrote:Far be it for me to defend the government but my understanding is SAGE are using a  more sophisticated model than purely numbers of cases per 100k  ie "case rates across all age groups, case rates in people over 60, the rate at which cases are rising or falling, the test positivity rate and the estimated pressure on the NHS" . Very difficult to find all these figures for any particular area but possibly available if your willing to dig deep enough
A fair point, but for two queries.

1/. What relevance does the number of cases have when a very large majority have few, if any symptoms. The number of people who suffer seriously from (not with) Covid is far more relevant.

(Back to the ridiculous, "Deaths for any reason . . . . " figures quoted each day by the BBC.)

2/. This also assumes that the PCR test is accurate and reliable, but the evidence from the Liverpool testing which used the Lateral Flow Test throws up large anomalies. It appears that the PCR test identifies positives at a rate of 5 times greater than the Lateral Flow test.

Something somewhere doesn't add up!  scratch head
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Post by rgermain Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:18 am

I see Police are stepping up border checks between Devon and Cornwall to catch drinkers getting a pint.

No wonder we are in a mess.

Looking at some of the self tests on the TV, are they doing it correctly, don't seem to be putting the swab up very far.

My old Dad used to say "you can prove anything with figures" still runs true today.
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Post by Mrgeoffrey Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:21 am

Gromit wrote:
Mrgeoffrey wrote:Far be it for me to defend the government but my understanding is SAGE are using a  more sophisticated model than purely numbers of cases per 100k  ie "case rates across all age groups, case rates in people over 60, the rate at which cases are rising or falling, the test positivity rate and the estimated pressure on the NHS" . Very difficult to find all these figures for any particular area but possibly available if your willing to dig deep enough
A fair point, but for two queries.

1/. What relevance does the number of cases have when a very large majority have few, if any symptoms. The number of people who suffer seriously from (not with) Covid is far more relevant.

(Back to the ridiculous, "Deaths for any reason . . . . " figures quoted each day by the BBC.)

2/. This also assumes that the PCR test is accurate and reliable, but the evidence from the Liverpool testing which used the Lateral Flow Test throws up large anomalies. It appears that the PCR test identifies positives at a rate of 5 times greater than the Lateral Flow test.

Something somewhere doesn't add up!  scratch head

Quite right Gromit.  Two very valid points and I'm not defending the policy but I do understand that in spite of being bang in the middle of rural Devon with cases lower than almost anywhere in the whole country there could be valid reasons why I'm in tier 2.
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Post by Gromit Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:36 am

I think you're being very magnanimous Mr G.

One has to ask the question, "If the vast majority of people can spread the disease among themselves with little if any serious consequence, why are they not allowed to keep the economy going while attention is given to the small minority who are at real and serious risk?"

For interest, are you familiar with the Great Barrington Declaration?   https://gbdeclaration.org/

It makes very interesting reading, and raises more than a few questions about how the pandemic is being handled, world wide - not only here!


N.B. This is not meant to be a political argument, so please don't anyone let it degenerate into finding someone to blame. We already have a rampant blame culture, and we don't need any more of it!!
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Post by babian Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:07 pm

Dr mike Yeadon if you can still read what he has to say regarding false positives etc.
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Post by Paulmold Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:51 pm

Wales first minister barred from pubs....

North Wales Live: Mark Drakeford barred from 100 North Wales pubs over looming alcohol ban.
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/mark-drakeford-barred-100-north-19377496

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Post by Bilbobaggins Tue Dec 01, 2020 3:37 pm

Not happy 

Angus 45 cases per 100000 in past 7 days

Dundee 95 cases 

We both get left at level 3 following today's review by Nicola et Al 

Aberdeen city and shire both as high as Dundee, with hospital admissions up over 50% in a week, but left in level 2

I now firmly believe this is less to do with virus management and more to do with politics as Aberdeen had a big lockdown on its own several months ago and there was lots of noise to keep them at !evel 2.

Angus is a small rural authority without big voice do we have been skewered.

Nicola risks losing the goodwill she has built up so far.

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Post by Gromit Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:50 pm

From what we can see from here, she's absolutely obsessed with trying to have another "once in a generation" referendum - and another after that if she still doesn't like the result!!

Everything she does or says seems to have the next elections very much in mind to be sure she gets in again.

Admittedly the Biased Broadcasting Corporation is renowned for spouting selected content so we only know what we are told, but I quite admired her and thought she was doing a far better job than Boris to begin with. Recently she seems to have lost the plot - along with the rest of them. Is she being misled by the so-called expert science, like everyone else seems to be?


P.S. For Paul.
Have you noticed that Drakeford is barred from every pub in West Conwy for 18 months - on pain of calling the police!  lol4
https://www.northwalespioneer.co.uk/news/18911917.mark-drakeford-wales-first-minister-barred-every-pub-west-conwy/
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Post by bikeralw Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:33 pm

It seems to me the leaders of the devolved governments, plus the occupant of number 10, are in some sort of demented competition, the winner is the one who can come up with the most outlandish covid 19 rules..
I wouldn't like to bet on the overall winner, but in front by a nose at the moment is the proponent of pubs not being allowed to sell beer...
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Post by Paulmold Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:55 pm

Trying not to get political but if we had the same party in power in all devolved parliaments as in number 10, I'm sure we would have one standard policy throughout the UK instead of each devolved government doing their own thing (except Wales who play 'follow my leader' copying everything Scotland does).

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Post by IanH Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:03 pm

And the unfortunately present occupant of the one in my country will automatically do the opposite to London!!
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Post by IanH Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:07 pm

Gromit wrote:From what we can see from here, she's absolutely obsessed with trying to have another "once in a generation" referendum - and another after that if she still doesn't like the result!!

Everything she does or says seems to have the next elections very much in mind to be sure she gets in again.

Admittedly the Biased Broadcasting Corporation is renowned for spouting selected content so we only know what we are told, but I quite admired her and thought she was doing a far better job than Boris to begin with. Recently she seems to have lost the plot - along with the rest of them. Is she being misled by the so-called expert science, like everyone else seems to be?


P.S. For Paul.
Have you noticed that Drakeford is barred from every pub in West Conwy for 18 months - on pain of calling the police!  lol4
https://www.northwalespioneer.co.uk/news/18911917.mark-drakeford-wales-first-minister-barred-every-pub-west-conwy/
I had a pc guru friend develop an APP in his workshop, quite cheap and works well. It automatically detects, 3 seconds before it happens any sound or vision of Nippy and automatically switches off the radio or tv it is programmed to.
At only £100,000 I thought it excellent value for money, can take orders if interested!!!!!!!
innocent hugegrins hugegrins
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Post by burlingtonboaby Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:29 am

Neighbours on other side of us had a week away with friends in a static caravan near Whitby . 
Friends grandson who works in one of the Mac Ds felt unwell and was tested positive for COVID, the rest of the family all tested positive with a day, all had been double jabbed with AZ,except the grandson, the family stayed on to ride out the virus ,our neighbours came home to isolate themselves.
They phoned me yesterday to advise me of their health situation,both are fit walkers,unfortunately the older chap has been laid out.
So don't let your guard down dispite having two jabs, wear your mask etc
East Riding and Hull still has one of the highest positive test numbers in the region.
One of the resons we have kept a low profile this summer and not visited anyone with scones at near bye campsites.  allthumbz
Have a nice day.
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Post by Paulmold Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:58 am

Son, 42, caught it at a music festival, that's his business, double jabbed, very mild case , just the taste/smell that still has not returned after three weeks now. He had it last year before jabs, so you'd think he'd now have resistance but no. Luckily the jabs may have prevented serious illness. Do we just get on with life but take precautions or do we lock ourselves away for ever. 
Presumably scientists are still working on making a vaccine to totally kill this virus and not just prevent serious illness. They did it for polio and other viruses.

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Post by Askit Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:15 am

I reckon I had the virus three weeks ago (or if not I had it's evil twin). It's a bit complicated because I was dealing with an entirely different medical issue at the time. I considered going for a test (since the GP practice and chemists say not to enter if you have symptoms) but the LF only works if you have no symptoms and the PCR is only effective up to a maximum of 5 days after symptoms start. By the time I had worked out what was going on it was too late for a test. 

Apart from that, what difference would a p-ve or n-ve result have made to me? Basically the treatment is the same, there is no outside intervention, stay home, use paracetamol and drink plenty of fluids, which I did. My big concern is how did I catch it, I've been double jabbed with AZ, we wear masks in all public places, we don't use public transport and haven't met with family or friends for months. Thankfully my wife seems to be ok. As Boaby said, it's not going away so stay vigilant and stay safe.

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Post by burlingtonboaby Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:26 am

So sorry it got to you Tony, drink plenty of liquids, I.e Irn bru, whisky, joking aside hope you get fitter soon.
My wife still has poor taste, hearing and fatigued, this maybe old age symptoms , ? she used to be a Munro basher in her youth and always fit.
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Post by Askit Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:07 am

Thanks Boaby, I'm pretty much back to normal (maybe that's not a good thing  hugegrins). Appetite still not back and some odd pains or muscle spasms. My wife said she's never seen me so ill so it must have been bad   snigger

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Post by Paulmold Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:32 pm

I've just been to collect prescription from local Tesco pharmacy,  three people in front of me requested covid test kits, 1st one said she had runny nose and sore throat, second wanted it for work, third said he just wasn't feeling well. The first and third were not wearing masks. No wonder cases are rising. Wearing masks is compulsory in Wales, why is no-one enforcing it? I know stores don't challenge people because they don't want the abuse but they could use security guards on the doors (not many stores around here use them ) who are used to abuse.

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Post by burlingtonboaby Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:37 am

Hardly a face mask to be seen here Paul, only the older folks wear them, however our local East Riding positive test numbers are falling ,although still people in A&E and dying.
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Post by Askit Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:58 am

Paul, generally people are still wearing them (as required by law here in Scotland) in food supermarkets. We ventured out into Glasgow city centre last Wednesday for the first time in nearly two years. At a guess, about 30% of those using the shops were ignoring mask wearing. There were no tannoy messages or staff enforcing the law. Ringing tills rule  shrugg

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Post by bikeralw Tue Sep 21, 2021 1:45 pm

In our neck of the woods the only place you'll see 100% mask wearing is on busses where it's still compulsory, however even then they come off when passengers get chatting. In shops I guess about 20% wear them, in pubs they're non-existent.
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Post by Askit Tue Sep 21, 2021 1:52 pm

bikeralw wrote:In our neck of the woods the only place you'll see 100% mask wearing is on busses where it's still compulsory, however even then they come off when passengers get chatting. In shops I guess about 20% wear them, in pubs they're non-existent.
Al.

It's still compulsory on all public transport in Scotland but the same practices exist here with folk wearing them to get on then pulling them down when they hit a seat.

Incidentally on the vaccination front, from the early position of the UK it appears things have changed somewhat.

"Last week, according to Our World in Data, the picture looked different.
Nine EU countries, including Portugal, Spain, Ireland, France, Belgium and Italy, have now administered one or both doses of a Covid-19 vaccine to a larger share of their populations than the UK, with a further five having overtaken the US".

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Post by burlingtonboaby Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:45 pm

Nipped into Halfords Scarborough,one person in a face mask, me. Morrisons Scarborough,would say about half a dozen in masks, old folks,cashiers not wearing them, neither were any of the other staff re- loading the shelves.
Will still keep wearing my mask till it falls of.
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Post by Dbvwt Tue Sep 21, 2021 5:40 pm

I’m ready for the flack but I stopped wearing my mask in supermarkets, shops etc.. the day it wasn’t compulsory a few months back.
Don’t get me wrong, I realise that COVID is still out there big time but that was the moment I decided that it was something that we will have to live with for probably all our lifetimes and enough was enough.
I realise that people are still understandably nervous and when in Tesco for example I always give a wide berth to others. 
If compulsory mask wearing returns then I will be the first to put one on but if I’m honest it has been great to feel some kind of normality in my life after 18 months of restrictions.
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