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COVID-19 infection numbers nearly 100k daily

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Post by Gromit Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:59 am

mikethebike wrote:I think the first minister uses one size fits all.! Pain for all.

Micky
I'm sure he does Mike.
Pubs can open, but only until 6.00pm, and they can't sell alcohol.  rolleyes

What use is a pub with no beer!!!!

The man's an idiot if he thinks pubs will be able to survive selling lemonade crisps and lemonade.
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Post by Gromit Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:09 am

Mrgeoffrey wrote:Far be it for me to defend the government but my understanding is SAGE are using a  more sophisticated model than purely numbers of cases per 100k  ie "case rates across all age groups, case rates in people over 60, the rate at which cases are rising or falling, the test positivity rate and the estimated pressure on the NHS" . Very difficult to find all these figures for any particular area but possibly available if your willing to dig deep enough
A fair point, but for two queries.

1/. What relevance does the number of cases have when a very large majority have few, if any symptoms. The number of people who suffer seriously from (not with) Covid is far more relevant.

(Back to the ridiculous, "Deaths for any reason . . . . " figures quoted each day by the BBC.)

2/. This also assumes that the PCR test is accurate and reliable, but the evidence from the Liverpool testing which used the Lateral Flow Test throws up large anomalies. It appears that the PCR test identifies positives at a rate of 5 times greater than the Lateral Flow test.

Something somewhere doesn't add up!  scratch head
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Post by rgermain Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:18 am

I see Police are stepping up border checks between Devon and Cornwall to catch drinkers getting a pint.

No wonder we are in a mess.

Looking at some of the self tests on the TV, are they doing it correctly, don't seem to be putting the swab up very far.

My old Dad used to say "you can prove anything with figures" still runs true today.
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Post by Mrgeoffrey Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:21 am

Gromit wrote:
Mrgeoffrey wrote:Far be it for me to defend the government but my understanding is SAGE are using a  more sophisticated model than purely numbers of cases per 100k  ie "case rates across all age groups, case rates in people over 60, the rate at which cases are rising or falling, the test positivity rate and the estimated pressure on the NHS" . Very difficult to find all these figures for any particular area but possibly available if your willing to dig deep enough
A fair point, but for two queries.

1/. What relevance does the number of cases have when a very large majority have few, if any symptoms. The number of people who suffer seriously from (not with) Covid is far more relevant.

(Back to the ridiculous, "Deaths for any reason . . . . " figures quoted each day by the BBC.)

2/. This also assumes that the PCR test is accurate and reliable, but the evidence from the Liverpool testing which used the Lateral Flow Test throws up large anomalies. It appears that the PCR test identifies positives at a rate of 5 times greater than the Lateral Flow test.

Something somewhere doesn't add up!  scratch head

Quite right Gromit.  Two very valid points and I'm not defending the policy but I do understand that in spite of being bang in the middle of rural Devon with cases lower than almost anywhere in the whole country there could be valid reasons why I'm in tier 2.
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Post by Gromit Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:36 am

I think you're being very magnanimous Mr G.

One has to ask the question, "If the vast majority of people can spread the disease among themselves with little if any serious consequence, why are they not allowed to keep the economy going while attention is given to the small minority who are at real and serious risk?"

For interest, are you familiar with the Great Barrington Declaration?   https://gbdeclaration.org/

It makes very interesting reading, and raises more than a few questions about how the pandemic is being handled, world wide - not only here!


N.B. This is not meant to be a political argument, so please don't anyone let it degenerate into finding someone to blame. We already have a rampant blame culture, and we don't need any more of it!!
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Post by babian Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:07 pm

Dr mike Yeadon if you can still read what he has to say regarding false positives etc.
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Post by Paulmold Tue Dec 01, 2020 1:51 pm

Wales first minister barred from pubs....

North Wales Live: Mark Drakeford barred from 100 North Wales pubs over looming alcohol ban.
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/mark-drakeford-barred-100-north-19377496

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Post by Bilbobaggins Tue Dec 01, 2020 3:37 pm

Not happy 

Angus 45 cases per 100000 in past 7 days

Dundee 95 cases 

We both get left at level 3 following today's review by Nicola et Al 

Aberdeen city and shire both as high as Dundee, with hospital admissions up over 50% in a week, but left in level 2

I now firmly believe this is less to do with virus management and more to do with politics as Aberdeen had a big lockdown on its own several months ago and there was lots of noise to keep them at !evel 2.

Angus is a small rural authority without big voice do we have been skewered.

Nicola risks losing the goodwill she has built up so far.

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Post by Gromit Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:50 pm

From what we can see from here, she's absolutely obsessed with trying to have another "once in a generation" referendum - and another after that if she still doesn't like the result!!

Everything she does or says seems to have the next elections very much in mind to be sure she gets in again.

Admittedly the Biased Broadcasting Corporation is renowned for spouting selected content so we only know what we are told, but I quite admired her and thought she was doing a far better job than Boris to begin with. Recently she seems to have lost the plot - along with the rest of them. Is she being misled by the so-called expert science, like everyone else seems to be?


P.S. For Paul.
Have you noticed that Drakeford is barred from every pub in West Conwy for 18 months - on pain of calling the police!  lol4
https://www.northwalespioneer.co.uk/news/18911917.mark-drakeford-wales-first-minister-barred-every-pub-west-conwy/
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Post by bikeralw Tue Dec 01, 2020 5:33 pm

It seems to me the leaders of the devolved governments, plus the occupant of number 10, are in some sort of demented competition, the winner is the one who can come up with the most outlandish covid 19 rules..
I wouldn't like to bet on the overall winner, but in front by a nose at the moment is the proponent of pubs not being allowed to sell beer...
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Post by Paulmold Tue Dec 01, 2020 6:55 pm

Trying not to get political but if we had the same party in power in all devolved parliaments as in number 10, I'm sure we would have one standard policy throughout the UK instead of each devolved government doing their own thing (except Wales who play 'follow my leader' copying everything Scotland does).

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Post by IanH Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:03 pm

And the unfortunately present occupant of the one in my country will automatically do the opposite to London!!
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Post by IanH Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:07 pm

Gromit wrote:From what we can see from here, she's absolutely obsessed with trying to have another "once in a generation" referendum - and another after that if she still doesn't like the result!!

Everything she does or says seems to have the next elections very much in mind to be sure she gets in again.

Admittedly the Biased Broadcasting Corporation is renowned for spouting selected content so we only know what we are told, but I quite admired her and thought she was doing a far better job than Boris to begin with. Recently she seems to have lost the plot - along with the rest of them. Is she being misled by the so-called expert science, like everyone else seems to be?


P.S. For Paul.
Have you noticed that Drakeford is barred from every pub in West Conwy for 18 months - on pain of calling the police!  lol4
https://www.northwalespioneer.co.uk/news/18911917.mark-drakeford-wales-first-minister-barred-every-pub-west-conwy/
I had a pc guru friend develop an APP in his workshop, quite cheap and works well. It automatically detects, 3 seconds before it happens any sound or vision of Nippy and automatically switches off the radio or tv it is programmed to.
At only £100,000 I thought it excellent value for money, can take orders if interested!!!!!!!
innocent hugegrins hugegrins
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