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How many people have died from Covid19?

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How many people have died from Covid19? Empty How many people have died from Covid19?

Post by Gromit Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:54 pm

To clarify the title, "How many people have died WITH Covid19 - as opposed to dying FROM it?" There's a huge difference!!

For a long time anyone who stepped under a bus, but had Covid at any time in the past, was counted as a Covid death.

More recently, same bus, but if they have been tested positive in the last 28 days, again it counts as a Covid death.

I really can't understand why the data is released in this fashion. It's utterly meaningless and confusing . . . unless the Government is intentionally obfuscating (good word that!  snigger ) the information we are allowed to have? Can't think why they would as it clearly makes the situation seem considerably worse than it really is.
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Post by TeamRienza Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:09 pm

Statistics are wonderfull things. Look how well the Chinese have counted their deaths. All we can surmise is that many other democratic countries have large numbers of deaths and I dare say that each has its take on how to count deaths, so it all probably averages out in the end.

We have an old saying here in Ireland. “There’s people dying now that never died before”

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Post by Paulmold Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:19 pm

The most confusing stats to me are the number per hundred thousand. Some use a 7 day figure, another uses a 15 day figure and suddenly the other day an online newspaper used a total from the beginning figure of over 900 per hundred thousand when previously they used a 7 day figure of 130.

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Post by Cymro Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:22 pm

You know the old saying about Lies and Statistics.

I can thoroughly recommend viewing a talk on The Art of Statistics, by Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS, of The Univesristy of Cambridge. The title may not appeal - but when he comes to "Statistically, who was the luckiest man on the Titanic?" and "Why do old men have big ears?" and so on, you'll like it. I'd start after about 10 minutes in...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m05BStvg23U

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Post by FreelanderUK Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:18 pm

I had the same conversation with a family member this morning ,how many people have actually died because of COVID and not how many have died because of underlying conditions and being tested with COVID , I would think the actual number is lower than what is being reported

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Post by Mike187 Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:33 pm

I would second Cymro recommendation of Professor Spiegelhalter and also the Radio 4 program “More or Less” that looks at statistics and how they are used and misused. Not on air at the moment but can be found on the BBC sounds app, many items on COVID. 


I find the rolling 7day average of positive tests for your local area gives you some context to base your risk on. 


As for deaths the number of excess deaths over the five year average probably gives you a better picture of the pandemic deaths, particularly if comparing to other countries due to difference in counting COVID deaths. At present that stands for 54000 in England since March.


Mike

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